Time for a quick climate update. A batch of warm weather may not prove anything, even in the Far North, where the looming afternoon outlook is almost always colder, darker, snowier, icier and rainier than anyone can remember. (If you don’t believe me, just mutter to a random stranger in Anchorage — “Man, the weather sure seems weird” — and stand back.)
Still, the weather in Barrow has been downright balmy. As University of Alaska Fairbanks scientist Martha Shulski points out in the latest climate news from the Alaska Climate Research Center, it’s been one of the warmest Octobers on record for America’s most northern town.
The average temperature of 23.4 °F was almost 9 °F warmer than normal and ranks in the top 10 warmest Octobers. … The average high temperature was 26 °F, about 7° above average, and the average low temperature was 20 °F, almost 11 °F above average.
Blame the Chukchi Sea, still largely unfrozen after the most extensive meltback in modern history. The rest of the state has been mixed, says Shulski.
Checking in with the Alaska Climate Research Center provides an antidote for overgeneralization. While average global temperatures may rise — and rise — it’s important to realize that any given region as small as a single continent or state might experience downturns or flat trends. Like Alaska.
Here’s my favorite temperature chart for Alaska, reflecting that average temperatures recorded by the many of the state’s major weather stations slid slightly between 1977 and 2006, all during the period of the highest global temperatures and most alarming CO2 increases in centuries. I call it up from time to time for a reminder that my personal perception of a warming Anchorage doesn’t exactly match reality. Check out the discussion of Alaska’s climate change for more.
Shulski has this to say in the October city summaries at ACRC:
The temperature pattern for Alaska this October was mixed, with below normal temperatures for the eastern interior, and parts of the southern coast, and above normal for southcentral, the western and Arctic coasts.
Most departures were within 4 degrees of normal, though a notable exception was for Barrow with a positive temperature departure of almost 9 °F.
Precipitation was mostly below normal for much of the state, with the exception of the southwest and parts of the southeast panhandle. The seasonal snowpack was established during the month for many locations throughout the state.
And in Anchorage — where the ground seems hardly frozen and the first week of November brought us some of the ickiest late September weather yet seen — temperatures were up. Sort of.
Still, as Mark Twain might have written while complaining about the rain, “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and CLIMATE statistics.”